class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Covid-19 and Making Predictions ### Chrissy Aman and Ricky Sun ### Bates College ### 2022-04-14 --- ## Outline <style type="text/css"> .remark-slide-content { font-size: 30px; padding: 1em 4em 1em 4em; } </style> - Introduction - Literature Review - Our Data - Methods & Data Analyses - Results - Limitations and Potential Future Studies --- class: inverse, center, middle # Introduction --- # Introduction COVID-19, also known as Coronavirus disease 2019 is a contagious disease caused by a virus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Up until yesterday, there are over 497,057,239 infections and 6,179,104 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic Although no one can predict a pandemic like this, with the help of data, we might be able to use available data to, for example, evaluate risks, so that the virus and mutations can be better managed or even contained in earlier stages --- ## Research Question - In our research, we are trying to use Covid-19 related data, together with other relevant data to find potential predictors for Covid-19 cases, deaths, or vaccination rates. ? Do vaccinations effectively mitigate the death rate ? Can stricter policies better contain the virus & the death rate ? What about other variables in predicting Covid-19 ? Use of machine learning algorithm to predict Covid-19 --- class: inverse, middle, center # Literature Review --- # [1a] Covid-19 severity .pull-left[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://www.mdpi.com/pathogens/pathogens-09-00817/article_deploy/html/images/pathogens-09-00817-g001-550.jpg" alt="Reference: Mulinari T.O., et al. (2020) MDPI" width="60%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: Mulinari T.O., et al. (2020) MDPI</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ - The unpredictability of the progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be attributed to the low precision of the tools used to predict the prognosis of this disease, especially when the virus is mutating in a fast speed from alpha, to Omicron, and there are more recent variants too ] --- # [1b] Vitamin D and covid-19 .pull-left[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://www.healio.com/~/media/slack-news/fm_im/misc/infographics/2020/september/pc0920meltzer_graphic_01.jpg?h=630&w=1200&la=en&hash=AA5CE3037B8695511804123FBF351C92" alt="Reference: Meltzer DO, et al. (2021) JAMA Netw Open" width="100%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: Meltzer DO, et al. (2021) JAMA Netw Open</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ - Several studies suggest an association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and the likelihood of suffering severe symptoms of covid-19 ] --- # [2] Covid-19 and weather .pull-left[ - Akin to respiratory tract infection diseases, climatic conditions may significantly influence the COVID-19 pandemic, significant efforts have been made to explore the relationship between climatic condition and growth in number of COVID-19 cases ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S004896972033179X-ga1.jpg" alt="Reference: Mesay Moges Menebo (2020)" width="80%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: Mesay Moges Menebo (2020)</p> </div> ] --- # [3] Covid-19 and social media .pull-left[ - Social media data from, for example, google search, twitter, facebook and other social media platforms, may also be used to develop models and as early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks. Social media data can also presents with people's perception of risks and general mental states ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://api.hub.jhu.edu/factory/sites/default/files/styles/soft_crop_2400/public/social_media_032720.jpg?itok=oJE4T6Tf" alt="Reference: JHU Hub (2020)" width="80%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: JHU Hub (2020)</p> </div> ] --- # [4] Covid-19 and impacts .pull-left[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://cdn-japantimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/np_file_1549.jpeg" alt="Reference: James G. (2020)" width="100%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: James G. (2020)</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ - Covid-19 also has had great impacts in our daily lives (racial issues, job markets, also economic activities, and so on) ] --- # [5] Covid-19 and machine learning .pull-left[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://www.news-medical.net/image.axd?picture=2021%2F12%2Fshutterstock_1722032125.jpg" alt="Reference: Suchandrima Bhowmik (2021)" width="100%" /> <p class="caption">Reference: Suchandrima Bhowmik (2021)</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ - Developing accurate forecasting tools will help fighting against the pandemic. Prediction models that combine several features to estimate the risk of infection aim to assist medical staff worldwide in helping patients, especially in the context of limited healthcare resources ] --- class: inverse, middle, center # Data --- ## Data - details The dataset is coming from "Our World in Data" Covid-19 public data, together with data from JHU, WHO, CDC and World Bank. The data covers a wide range: - Basic Covid-19 data (cases, deaths) - Hospital & ICU (ICU beds, ICU patients) - Policy responses (stringency_index) - Health info (Reproduction rate, diabetes prevalence) - Tests & positivity - Vaccinations - Others (populations, life_expectancy, GDP per catpita and so on) --- class: inverse, middle, center # Methods & Data Analyses --- # Methods & Data Analyses - details Part I: Preliminary exploration like summary statistics, scatter plots, heatmap, maps Part II: Regression analyses (Linear models, fixed effects, and regression continuity) Part III: time series (ARiMA) and machine learning algorithm(KNN) --- class: inverse, middle, center # Results & Implications --- # Early Covid-19 Cases <img src="presentation_files/figure-html/covid_cases_early_1-1.png" title="The map shows the Covid-19 cases around the global in early stage of the virus (2020-03-23). The data is counted by country. The lighter the color, the more cases. China, US, Iran, Italy are countries that have the most cases during this time. The graph is included to give an overview of Covid-19 infections during earlier time of the pandemic (WHO annouced global pandemic in January 22)." alt="The map shows the Covid-19 cases around the global in early stage of the virus (2020-03-23). The data is counted by country. The lighter the color, the more cases. China, US, Iran, Italy are countries that have the most cases during this time. The graph is included to give an overview of Covid-19 infections during earlier time of the pandemic (WHO annouced global pandemic in January 22)." width="80%" /> --- # Early Covid-19 Cases <img src="presentation_files/figure-html/covid_cases_early_2-1.png" title="The map shows the Covid-19 cases around the global in early stage of the virus (2020-05-23). The data is counted by country. The lighter the color, the more cases. Russia, US, Brail are countries that have the most cases during this time. The graph is included to give an overview of Covid-19 infections during earlier time of the pandemic (WHO annouced global pandemic in January 22)." alt="The map shows the Covid-19 cases around the global in early stage of the virus (2020-05-23). The data is counted by country. The lighter the color, the more cases. Russia, US, Brail are countries that have the most cases during this time. The graph is included to give an overview of Covid-19 infections during earlier time of the pandemic (WHO annouced global pandemic in January 22)." width="80%" /> --- # HDI & Death Rate