Lessons to be Learned from Super Bowl Advertisements

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background-image: url(img/background2.jpg)
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# Lessons to be Learned from Super Bowl Advertisements
## Liza Dubinsky, Kemunto Ongera, Patrick Bergin
## Bates College
### 17 November, 2021
---

### Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

.pull-left[
* The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.
]

.pull-right[
<img src="img/superbowl.png" width="300" height="400" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Background Image: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
###### Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
]

---

### Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

.pull-left[
* The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

* Brands invest heavily into their ads because evidence shows that more viewership leads to higher consumption of the branded product.
]

.pull-right[
<img src="img/superbowl.png" width="300" height="400" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
]

---

### Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

.pull-left[
* The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

* Brands invest heavily into their ads because evidence shows that more viewership leads to higher consumption of the branded product.

* These ads build a complementary relationship between the brand and sports viewership.
]

.pull-right[
<img src="img/superbowl.png" width="300" height="400" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
]

---

### A Little About Our Data

.pull-left[
<img src="img/tinytuesday.png" width="350" height="350" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
* We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production. 
]

.footnote[
###### Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
]

---

### A Little About Our Data

.pull-left[
<img src="img/tinytuesday.png" width="350" height="350" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
* We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production.

* The data comes from FiveThirtyEight, who published a corresponding article "According to Superbowl Ads, Americans Love America, Animals and Sex" in February, 2021. 
]

.footnote[
###### Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
]

---

### A Little About Our Data

.pull-left[
<img src="img/tinytuesday.png" width="350" height="350" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
* We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production.

* The data comes from FiveThirtyEight, who published a corresponding article "According to Superbowl Ads, Americans Love America, Animals and Sex" in February, 2021.

* The data was collected by watching and evaluating 233 ads on Youtube from the 10 brands that aired the most in the last 21 Super Bowls. 
]

.footnote[
###### Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
]

---

### What Kinds of Brands are Airing the Most During the Super Bowl?

.pull-center[
<img src="presentation_files/figure-html/pie-chart-brand-types-1.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Figure: Pie chart showing the breakdown of brand types.
]

---

### How has Ad Production Changed Over Time by Brand?

<div id="htmlwidget-93b89ce2689f27807be5" class="streamgraph html-widget" style="width:1000px;height:300px;"></div>
<div id="htmlwidget-93b89ce2689f27807be5-legend" style="width:1000px" class="streamgraph html-widget-legend"><center><label style='padding-right:5px' for='htmlwidget-93b89ce2689f27807be5-select'></label><select id='htmlwidget-93b89ce2689f27807be5-select' style='visibility:hidden;'></select></center></div>
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.footnote[
###### Figure: Streamgraph of the ad share of each brand for the past 20 Super Bowls.
]

---

### How do Youtube Video Characteristics Inform Ad Popularity?

.pull-left[
* Can we predict what will make a Super Bowl ad published on Youtube more popular than another?

* How can we measure ad popularity from our data set?
]

.pull-right[
<img src="img/superbowl2.jpg" width="550" height="350" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Image: NFL logo, Vince Lombardi Trophy, and football on football stadium background.
]

---

### Finding an Ad Popularity Metric

.footnote[
###### Figure: Regression model to investigate relationship between number of views and number of likes.
]

---

### Rationalizing our Ad Popularity Metric

* The regression equation is as follows:

* `\(\hat{like count_i} = 1883.826 + 0.001727871 * view count_i\)`

* To avoid comparing raw view or like counts across Youtube videos of Super Bowl ads, we decided to define an ad popularity variable likes/view

* According to this metric, which video do you think is more "popular"?

---

### Touchdown Celebrations to Come | NFL | Super Bowl LII Commercial:

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### 2017 Kia Niro “Hero’s Journey” Starring Melissa McCarthy:

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### What is the Most Popular Combination of Ad Categories?

.footnote[
###### Figure: Heatmap of frequencies of ad category combinations.
]

---

### How Do Ad Categories Influence an Ad's Popularity?

.pull-center[
<img src="presentation_files/figure-html/violin-plot-funny-1.png" width="65%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.footnote[
###### Figure: Violin plot showing the probability density of funny and not funny ads at different ad popularities.
]

---

### How Has Ad Production Changed Over Time by Ad Category?

<div id="htmlwidget-f2cadbc13a8e439511c8" class="streamgraph html-widget" style="width:1000px;height:300px;"></div>
<div id="htmlwidget-f2cadbc13a8e439511c8-legend" style="width:1000px" class="streamgraph html-widget-legend"><center><label style='padding-right:5px' for='htmlwidget-f2cadbc13a8e439511c8-select'></label><select id='htmlwidget-f2cadbc13a8e439511c8-select' style='visibility:hidden;'></select></center></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-f2cadbc13a8e439511c8">{"x":{"data":{"key":["Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex","Animals","Celebrity","Danger","Funny","Patriotic","Show Product Quickly","Use Sex"],"value":[2,0,3,6,0,5,0,3,4,4,8,1,4,4,3,2,4,7,1,6,5,3,2,2,10,0,9,3,6,2,3,9,1,6,4,5,5,1,7,0,6,6,2,2,3,7,0,5,2,4,1,6,8,2,10,3,3,5,4,11,3,11,4,5,2,7,11,3,12,2,2,2,3,9,2,8,3,2,0,4,4,0,3,2,7,3,4,6,1,11,4,6,0,3,6,0,8,3,7,4,4,6,3,7,3,4,1,3,4,3,5,2,4,6,2,6,2,4,1,1,2,2,1,2,2,0,2,4,2,6,4,6,1,3,5,1,6,3,9,1,4,8,3,5,1,5,0],"date":["2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2000-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2001-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2002-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2003-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2004-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2005-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2006-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2007-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2008-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2009-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2010-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2011-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2012-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2013-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2014-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2015-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2016-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2017-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2018-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2019-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01","2020-01-01"]},"markers":null,"annotations":null,"offset":"silhouette","interactive":true,"interpolate":"cardinal","palette":"Spectral","text":"black","tooltip":"black","x_tick_interval":10,"x_tick_units":"year","x_tick_format":"%Y","y_tick_count":5,"y_tick_format":",g","top":20,"right":40,"bottom":30,"left":50,"legend":false,"legend_label":"","fill":"brewer","label_col":"black","x_scale":"date","sort":true,"order":"none"},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

.footnote[
###### Figure: Streamgraph of the ad share of each ad category for the past 20 Super Bowls.
]

---

### Is it Worth it for Brands to Post Their Ads on Their Official Youtube Channels?

.footnote[
###### Figure: Bar plot of average ad popularity for official and unofficial Youtube channels.
]

---

### Limitations of the Dataset

* Ad categories are evaluated as True or False as opposed to on a continuum to allow for an analysis of the effect of 
a given category's increasing presence.

* Dataset of Youtube video observations as opposed to real responses to ads that aired during the Super Bowl creates a 
disconnect between what's popular during the Super Bowl and who goes to watch videos on Youtube after the event.

---

### Suggested Next Steps

.pull-left[
<img src="img/football.jpeg" width="650" height="350" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
* Evaluate Youtube videos with better category choices (i.e. music, emotion, brand popularity, celebrity status)

* Use data driven by a survey rather than Youtube engagement to accurately estimate ad popularity in real time rather 
than those who choose to view Youtube ads.
]

.footnote[
###### Image: Football under lights of foodball stadium.
]