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Lessons to be Learned from Super Bowl Advertisements

Liza Dubinsky, Kemunto Ongera, Patrick Bergin

Bates College

17 November, 2021

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Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

  • The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

Background Image: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

  • The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

  • Brands invest heavily into their ads because evidence shows that more viewership leads to higher consumption of the branded product.

Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

  • The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

  • Brands invest heavily into their ads because evidence shows that more viewership leads to higher consumption of the branded product.

  • These ads build a complementary relationship between the brand and sports viewership.

Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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A Little About Our Data

  • We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production.
Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
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A Little About Our Data

  • We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production.

  • The data comes from FiveThirtyEight, who published a corresponding article "According to Superbowl Ads, Americans Love America, Animals and Sex" in February, 2021.

Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
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A Little About Our Data

  • We used Superbowl ad data from the past 20 years to analyze trends in ad popularity and production.

  • The data comes from FiveThirtyEight, who published a corresponding article "According to Superbowl Ads, Americans Love America, Animals and Sex" in February, 2021.

  • The data was collected by watching and evaluating 233 ads on Youtube from the 10 brands that aired the most in the last 21 Super Bowls.

Image: TinyTuesday dataset cover art of baby, Cardi B, flying pig, Bud Light knight, etc in rainbow television.
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What Kinds of Brands are Airing the Most During the Super Bowl?

Figure: Pie chart showing the breakdown of brand types.
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How has Ad Production Changed Over Time by Brand?

200020102020051015
Figure: Streamgraph of the ad share of each brand for the past 20 Super Bowls.
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How do Youtube Video Characteristics Inform Ad Popularity?

  • Can we predict what will make a Super Bowl ad published on Youtube more popular than another?

  • How can we measure ad popularity from our data set?

Image: NFL logo, Vince Lombardi Trophy, and football on football stadium background.
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Finding an Ad Popularity Metric

Figure: Regression model to investigate relationship between number of views and number of likes.
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Rationalizing our Ad Popularity Metric

  • The regression equation is as follows:

  • ^likecounti=1883.826+0.001727871∗viewcounti

  • To avoid comparing raw view or like counts across Youtube videos of Super Bowl ads, we decided to define an ad popularity variable likes/view

  • According to this metric, which video do you think is more "popular"?

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Touchdown Celebrations to Come | NFL | Super Bowl LII Commercial:

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2017 Kia Niro “Hero’s Journey” Starring Melissa McCarthy:

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What is the Most Popular Combination of Ad Categories?

Figure: Heatmap of frequencies of ad category combinations.
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How Do Ad Categories Influence an Ad's Popularity?

Figure: Violin plot showing the probability density of funny and not funny ads at different ad popularities.
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How Has Ad Production Changed Over Time by Ad Category?

200020102020010203040
Figure: Streamgraph of the ad share of each ad category for the past 20 Super Bowls.
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Is it Worth it for Brands to Post Their Ads on Their Official Youtube Channels?

Figure: Bar plot of average ad popularity for official and unofficial Youtube channels.
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Limitations of the Dataset

  • Ad categories are evaluated as True or False as opposed to on a continuum to allow for an analysis of the effect of a given category's increasing presence.

  • Dataset of Youtube video observations as opposed to real responses to ads that aired during the Super Bowl creates a disconnect between what's popular during the Super Bowl and who goes to watch videos on Youtube after the event.

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Suggested Next Steps

  • Evaluate Youtube videos with better category choices (i.e. music, emotion, brand popularity, celebrity status)

  • Use data driven by a survey rather than Youtube engagement to accurately estimate ad popularity in real time rather than those who choose to view Youtube ads.

Image: Football under lights of foodball stadium.
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Why is the Super Bowl Such a Big Deal for Brands?

  • The 2021 Super Bowl was watched by 91.63 million viewers in the United States.

Background Image: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Image: Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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